Has the time arrived for a breakthrough of cell-based meat? We are not quite there yet, but based on our research, we believe that it will not be long before cell-harvested meat becomes available to consumers. However, even if it makes its first appearance in restaurants, in supermarkets, and on dinner tables within the next few years, this does not mean that it will replace traditional meat overnight. We expect it will still be some time before cultured meat begins to make serious inroads into the market for butchered animal meat.
In terms of the roll-out process, it appears likely that the first commercial products will not show up immediately in supermarkets, but will initially be sold as expensive and exclusive goods in high-end restaurants, perhaps as soon as 2024. Asia may become the first continent where in-vitro meat is commercially available, possibly as a limited release product in a price range that is eight to ten times higher than conventional meat. Even before then, cultured fish meat may be sold as a B2B product in the framework of a pilot project.
Due to the difficulty of reproducing structured meat cuts in bioreactors, it will take quite some time before a fully diversified palette of cell-based meat products is available that not only includes the full range of meat types from fish and beef to pork, mutton, and poultry, but also encompasses all variants of meat cuts including not just beef patty, but fillets and T-bone steaks (see below). However, rapid adoption of cultured meat may be accelerated once a broad variety of products is complemented by the ability to tailor the nutritional content to the preferences and requirements of various consumer segments.
Obstacles to market entry
One of the main success factors for this new sector will be the ability to grow cell cultures in industrial-scale bioreactors that are capable of continuous operations. These do not yet exist. All products that have been presented in public so far were made in small-scale bioreactors that can only make cultivated meat one batch at a time. Smaller bioreactors that allow cells to grow continuously may be available as a minimum viable product from 2021 on, and commercial-scale infrastructure could be ready from 2022 onwards.
A crucial milestone will be the development of scaffolds that can give the desired shape to cell clusters during the growth phase to make structured cuts. These are not yet available, but Supertrends experts have assessed that a minimum viable version may be available as early as 2024. However, they do not believe that high-quality structured cultured meat cuts will be commercially available at a price that is competitive with traditional meat until later in the decade. Predictions vary between 2026 and 2032, with an aggregate consensus currently pointing to 2029 as the year by when this will be the case. By contrast, they assess that less technically demanding cell-based meat products such as chicken (2025), fish cakes (2026), and unstructured beef (2027) will be on the market sooner.
While appearances matter when assessing the timeline for commercialization, another factor will be energy efficiency at larger scales. On the one hand, the cost factor will determine how quickly cultivated meat can compete with traditional products in terms of the price tag. However, since the industry’s claim to deliver ethical products hinges not only on animal welfare, but also on the environmental sustainability of cultured meat, its carbon footprint will help to shape consumer perception. Nevertheless, optimizations and technical advances are progressing rapidly. One major success has been the replacement of animal-sourced Fetal Bovine Serum, which undercut the image of cell-based meat as cruelty-free product, with plant-based growth factors.
Acceptance and perceptions
Clearly, then, how consumers view cultivated meat will depend on the consistency between the product and its image. But can the industry achieve growth while remaining faithful to its principles of ethical and sustainable production? For example, when scaling up, will manufacturers be able to resist the temptation to cut costs by introducing antibiotics rather than making the effort to ensure sterile conditions at carneries at all times? If cell-based meat cannot live up to its marketing as an ethical and clean product, it will struggle for acceptance by consumers.
We also believe that acceptance will vary according to regions:
- Asians will be more willing to try cultured meat than European and North Americans.
- Residents of industrialized countries will be more willing to do so than consumers in developing countries, where it may be seen as a threat to agricultural industry and ways of life.
- At least initially, in-vitro meat will be more successful in urban spaces than in rural communities.
Given that an understanding of the product is such a vital aspect, it seems that educating consumers about cultured meat will be just as important as R&D when it comes to the creation and growth of markets.
Extended transition
At the time of writing of this report, the COVID-19 crisis is fostering a sudden and dramatic reconsidering of all aspects of public life, including consumer behavior and the global food supply. While this crisis has caused some delays to the in-vitro meat research, these are not significant, and in fact the crisis may create a favorable climate for fundamental transformations in consumer behavior. In the US meat industry in particular, the coronavirus pandemic has cast a harsh spotlight on longstanding workplace issues. This shift in perceptions may create a new mindset for the acceptance of cultured meat and its disruptive potential. And while the origins of the coronavirus are still being investigated (and can probably not be proven), the specter of further novel zoonotic diseases breaching the animal-human interface could prove another catalyst for change.
As noted above, we do not expect a sudden, rapid replacement of animal husbandry by cellular agriculture, but rather anticipate that the novel product will gradually encroach on the traditional meat industry and capture increasing market shares over time. We also see the possibility that cultured meat consumption will come on top of the existing dietary patterns and complement butchered meat rather than displace it altogether over an extended transitional period. Initially, cell-based meat will be an expensive novelty; in long-term, however, we believe that cultivated meat will be the cheaper alternative, while traditional butchered meat occupies a gradually shrinking market niche as a luxury product.