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8. Quantum Computing Between Science Fiction and Hype

Different experts will give significantly disparate answers regarding the future potential of quantum computers. At this point, quantum computers are regarded either as a huge opportunity (as proven by the high governmental and private investments in this field, the marketing messages of the producers, and the media coverage) or as science fiction.

Companies such as IBM, Google, or Honeywell promise huge advancements in this field, with a significant impact on businesses and industries. Most of the companies (other than the quantum producers themselves) stay in the race mostly because of “fear of missing out”. Or, as Bryn Roberts, head of operations for Pharmaceutical Research and Early Development (pRED) at Swiss pharmaceutical corporation Roche, put it: “We are scanning the horizon, waiting for the big wave, but we don’t know how big it is going to be, or when it will come. But if you see how much tech companies are investing in this topic, and how quickly the whole landscape is evolving, you realize that it will come, and it will be a game-changer.”93

Towards a balanced view regarding the true potential of quantum computing

William Hurd, a member of the US House of Representatives, believes the potential and capabilities of quantum devices will be decisive in the future: “In the same way that atomic weaponry symbolized power throughout the Cold War, quantum capability is likely to define hegemony in today’s increasingly digital, interconnected global economy.”

On the other hand, there is a strong group of skeptics (including Gil Kalai, mathematician at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Mikhail Dyakonov, professor of physics at Laboratoire Charles Coulomb (L2C), Université de Montpellier and recipient of numerous prizes in the field of physics) who do not believe that useful quantum computers will become available in the foreseeable future.94 Some argue that qubits will not be able to provide the performance expected, while others say that fully functional quantum computers will never be built (or that, if they are built, their advantages will not justify the resources invested).95

Scott Aaronson, director of the Quantum Information Center within the University of Texas at Austin, promotes a more balanced approach: “[…] Although we should not accept the usual hype, in my view it is equally misguided to dismiss quantum computing as science fiction. Instead we should find out what the limits of quantum computers are and what they could really do if we had them.”96

In other words, people have to be aware that, despite the hype and the commercial messages, they should not expect any magic. There is a strong likelihood that this technology will advance in the future, but it will have serious limitations, which will need to be accepted.

8.1

The future is “quantum”

The future is “quantum”

The world of quantum computing is both diverse and unpredictable. Given the novelty of the field and the radical change in perspective and approach that it has prompted, it is difficult to predict future advancements in this field. Moreover, there are disagreements and divergent points of view among scientists and industry representatives within this field.

The field of quantum computing is currently a racetrack in which hardware producers are competing with each other by improving their devices and seeking to achieve quantum advantage. Companies building algorithms, software, and applications on top of the hardware are still testing various options or have already decided upon a preferred technology. Some try to keep their options open and make their products scalable and transferable in case a different technology should advance significantly.

The general feeling in the field is that everybody is working to develop their system and use cases, and that breakthroughs are expected anytime, but nobody knows for sure in which area they will take place or which technology will enable them. However, given the novelty of this field, a differentiated development is also possible. Some technologies might prove viable faster than others, and there is always a chance that ideas that are now in an incipient phase or have not yet been fully conceived will enjoy a breakthrough at a later time.

A majority of experts interviewed favored trapped ion technology as the one that will bring quantum advantage. Others believe that annealing technology has better prospects because it can already be employed and tested in practical applications. On the other hand, the viability of superconducting technology is strongly supported by scientific studies, and in the academic world, it is regarded as the most promising approach to achieving fault-tolerant devices.97

Other experts argue that talking about the potential of this technology at this point would be similar to “asking Alan Turing to predict Facebook”.98 The potential is acknowledged, and a certain amount of possible applications are envisioned, but the future still holds a tremendous amount of uncertainty, even for the experts, academics, and active researchers in this field.

“Quantum computers will be exceptionally fast at a few specific tasks, but it appears that for most problems they would outclass today’s computers only modestly.”
Scott Aaronson99
8.2

References

[93] “Quantum Computers - Calculating the Unimaginable,” accessed October 15, 2020, https://www.roche.com/quantum-computing.htm.

[94] IEEE Spectrum, “The Case Against Quantum Computing,” IEEE Spectrum: Technology, Engineering, and Science News, accessed October 15, 2020, https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/the-case-against-quantum-computing.

[95] Katia Mosvitch, “Gil Kalai’s Argument Against Quantum Computers,” Quanta Magazine, accessed October 15, 2020, https://www.quantamagazine.org/gil-kalais-argument-against-quantum-computers-20180207/.

[96] Scott Aaronson, “The Limits of Quantum Computers,” Scientific American 298, no. 3 (2008): 62–69

[97] Sevilla and Riedel, “Forecasting Timelines of Quantum Computing.”

[98] Interview - Artur Ekert at the Launch of “Atos Quantum,” 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Jbjk6QimKo.

[99] Aaronson, “The Limits of Quantum Computers.”