Compared to the development of classical computing technology, the field consensus is that the quantum field is currently “at the vacuum tube level”.
To become viable, quantum computers still need to overcome serious technological hurdles. Most of them are directly related to the technology employed to build the qubits and the quantum processors. Others are related to finding real-world applications and possible ways to make use of this technology.
North America and China are very close in the quantum race, competing both in terms of funding levels as well as number of patents and breakthroughs. China seems to be convinced of the potential of quantum computers and is investing significantly in this field, aiming to become a world leader by 2030. Despite China having launched the first quantum satellite and being ahead of the pack in terms of quantum communication, the rest of the world is making significantly faster progress in terms of increasing the qubit number.
With strong governmental support and a prominent network of both research groups and startups, the UK is also a major player in the field.
Currently, the entire sector is financially supported by governmental funds and private investment. To support its long-term development (especially in the areas where the level of governmental support is not so high), the industry should also start commercializing products and generate revenue to maintain a stable investment in the research and development process.
| A TO DO list for the quantum computing field: |
|---|
| Achieve lower qubit error rates. Build logical qubits (error-free, which can perform computations) |
| Increase the number of qubits in a quantum computer |
| Maintain qubit coherence while scaling up the number of qubits |
| Connect multiple qubit systems into larger systems via communication channels |
| Develop algorithms suitable for the current capabilities of quantum computers and adjust them as the devices advance |
| Develop suitable refrigeration, wiring, and packaging systems once quantum computers are scaled up |
| Develop advanced process monitoring and control methods |
| Develop universal and accepted technical standards and terminology to evaluate the performance of quantum computers |
| Develop codes of conduct for companies using quantum computers and specify the limitations and requirements for responsible deployment. |
Either out of fear of missing out or because they are true believers in the potential of this field, hundreds of companies have already started to adjust their strategies to incorporate the potential advantages that quantum computers will bring. The main strategies employed by companies to harness the powers of quantum technology are:
- Develop partnerships with service providers that help them explore ways to benefit from quantum computing technologies (e.g., Airbus, Goldman Sachs, BMW)
- Access quantum computers directly via cloud and own dedicated teams to experiment with them and operate them (e.g., J.P. Morgan)
- Acquire quantum devices of their own from external producers. However, it is expected that the number of such users will be limited because the devices still need continuous maintenance and development (e.g., Lockheed Martin)
- Build their own devices and use them for improving proprietary products and services or to make them available via cloud to other interested parties (e.g., Honeywell).
The level of partnerships in the sector is very high thanks to close collaboration between universities, research centers, and businesses. Due to the complexity of the topic and the multiple-domain know-how required (e.g., quantum physics, engineering, software development, specific industry knowledge, etc.), there is clear evidence of collaboration, despite the fierce competition in achieving the quantum supremacy and advantage.
While the research effort was initially concentrated within universities and public research centers, the focus has now shifted towards industry and private companies. Jan Benhelm, Chief Marketing Officer at Zurich Instruments, has pointed out that universities are now a suitable environment for testing and experimenting with risky technologies. However, the focus in academia is mostly on publishing, and most research positions are temporary, which leads to less continuity and to difficulties in scaling up projects. Therefore, the strong collaboration between universities and industry, where businesses take over the initial research results and invest in scaling them up, could have a positive impact and speed up developments in the quantum computing field.
Although several university courses are now available, students do not yet receive proper training in quantum technology. It is estimated that it will take a couple of years until a proper “quantum workforce” will be developed, with the first step being the introduction of quantum science in computer science classes. Currently, such principles are primarily studied in physics and engineering departments.
In terms of ethical aspects, quantum computers have the potential to improve numerous types of industries and provide clear benefits for humanity (e.g., faster drug development, real-time solutions and processes in case of natural disasters, or the development of new materials or solutions for environmental problems). However, they also have a potential dark side. First of all, due to the high maintenance costs and specialized knowledge required, chances are high that quantum computers will not be widely accessible, but will remain luxury items that only large and well-funded companies or institutions can afford. That might increase the inequality between market players and even between governments, leading to strong imbalances of power and wealth. Free market competition would be impaired, and small companies left without any bargaining power. Along with that, misuse of this technology could pave the way for mass surveillance and political violence.
Because the technology and its applications are not yet fully developed, the quantum sector is in a continuous process of taking shape. Therefore, companies and investors still have the possibility to choose their roles and their approaches based on their level of involvement and affinity with the technology. At the forefront are the “trailblazers”, a role to be filled by those who can bring together a team of quantum scientists and engineers and who have access to significant resources in order to contribute to advancements in the field. “Adopters” include those who manage to build on existing technologies, develop them, or find new applications. Another way of gaining a foothold in this industry is to be a “supporter”, by spreading the news and educating the general public regarding the technology. Finally, the “spectators” have the least involvement, merely observing developments in the field, but with little incentive to take action.
Since its inception in 1980, the field of quantum computing has already undergone several cycles of excitement and disappointment, with breakthroughs being promised, but not achieved. While there is still strong enthusiasm for the topic, it is likely that, in the absence of technical developments, the field will move into a shadow cone. Since the path towards realizing a fault-tolerant computer is quite strenuous and long, it will be difficult to maintain a sustainable inflow of resources and support unless major breakthroughs happen in the near future.
However, it appears that the field has obtained new energy and enthusiasm over the past couple of years – as clearly reflected in the number of newly founded companies within the field.