One of the trends in anti-aging technology is the increase in both scientific publications and clinical trials. Over the past 20 years, the number of clinical trials has increased more than tenfold. This will have long-term implications for the business of anti-aging.
Since aging as a phenomenon is not categorized today as a disease, the short-term market opportunity for the business of anti-aging will not be related to aging itself, but rather to age-related diseases. In 2019, the combined market size for drugs that treat the five most common age-related diseases was US$389.52 billion and with a rapid growth trajectory. In the longer term, literally every elderly or even middle-aged adult will be a potential consumer.
The start-up ecosystem in the business of anti-aging medicine is evolving rapidly. The number of new start-ups has been increasing each year, especially since 2014. The life cycle of these start-ups is also getting faster. The average time for an anti-aging company to reach an exit (either by an IPO or a M&A) has reduced from 10 years in 2010 to 3 years since 2015.
Although not without challenges, the anti-aging business is viewed by investors and ordinary people alike as one of the most lucrative areas for investments. Having a stake in such a company can not only make an impact on society, but also offers a way to access this technology. Both the number of investors and the volume of funding for anti-aging companies are increasing. Crowdfunding has also emerged as an alternative way of financing.
We have identified the intersection of computer science and anti-aging technology as the cornerstone of future trends, particularly AI-assisted drug discovery, eHealth and mHealth, and personalized approaches. A list of companies working at these intersections can be found in the attached company database.
With the assistance of the Supertrends App, we have mapped out the future of the anti-aging business. The most critical elements of this map are the right timing and the right companies. We have identified the years around 2022 and 2025 as the two periods where increased business activities can be expected. We have also identified the types of companies that are best suited for short-, mid-, and long-term investment. It is important to keep in mind the relatively low success rate in developing new therapeutics. By combining the right timing and right candidates, you can make the best sense of this once-in-a-lifetime business opportunity.